Yes. Prices for particular goods can fall while inflation continues because inflation measures the change in an overall basket, not every price separately. In September 2026, the U.S. all-items Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% from August and 3.7% over 12 months, even as dairy prices and medical-care commodities declined. Those movements are compatible: categories carry different weights, and increases in some larger or faster-rising parts of the basket can outweigh decreases elsewhere Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Averages can move against individual prices
The CPI tracks price changes for a representative basket of goods and services purchased by urban consumers. It groups purchases into hundreds of categories and combines their price movements according to how important those categories are in household spending Bureau of Labor Statistics. A decline in one category therefore does not cancel an increase of the same percentage in another: their influence on the total depends partly on their weights.
Think of a household basket containing rent, groceries, fuel, medical care and other purchases. If the price of one item falls, the basket’s total cost might still rise if other items become more expensive. This is the difference between a component’s price movement and inflation across the basket. The CPI describes an average experience for its target population; it does not promise to match any one household’s spending or bills Bureau of Labor Statistics.
September’s declines sat beside larger increases
The September report gives a concrete example. The dairy and related products index fell 0.9% in the month, while the medical-care commodities index fell 0.7%. At the same time, gasoline rose 9.1%, shelter increased 0.4%, and the all-items index advanced 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis Bureau of Labor Statistics. The falling categories were real, but the total reflected many categories moving in different directions.
The year-over-year picture also varied by category. Dairy and related products were down 0.7% over 12 months, and medical-care commodities fell 3.3%. Yet the all-items CPI was up 3.7% over that span. Energy rose 20.4%, including a 34.2% increase in gasoline, while shelter climbed 3.2% Bureau of Labor Statistics. The aggregate is not a claim that every product rose; it summarizes the combined change in the basket.
The time window changes the answer
A monthly change and a 12-month change answer different questions. The September CPI rose 0.6% from August after a 0.4% increase in August, while the 12-month rise was 3.7% Bureau of Labor Statistics. A category can decline in one month but remain more expensive than a year earlier, or fall over the year while the broader index rises. Always check the period attached to a reported percentage.
There is another distinction between an index and a price quote. The CPI records average change across sampled prices and applies expenditure weights; it is not a list of current prices at every store. The index can help describe broad price trends, while a shopper’s own experience depends on what they buy and where. BLS notes that a household with unusually high medical spending, for example, may experience a different rate of price change than the population average Bureau of Labor Statistics.
What a falling price does—and does not—mean
When a category index falls, it means its measured prices declined over the stated period on average. It does not mean every product in that category became cheaper, nor does it establish why prices moved. In September, for instance, dairy was down as milk fell 2.0%, but other grocery groups rose, including nonalcoholic beverages and fruits and vegetables Bureau of Labor Statistics. A category average can conceal differences among items.
So the direct answer is yes: individual prices can fall during inflation. Inflation persists when the weighted overall basket continues to cost more, even though some components are cheaper. For practical reading, identify the index, the category, and the comparison period before drawing a conclusion. September’s figures show both sides at once: a rising all-items measure and declining dairy and medical-care commodity indexes Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Sources & further reading
- September 2026 Consumer Price Index ↗Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Consumer Price Index questions and answers ↗Bureau of Labor Statistics
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