How to read a CBO budget baseline
A Congressional Budget Office baseline is a law-based projection used to compare policy changes. It is not an enacted budget or a promise about what federal finances will look like.
The economy,
in human terms.
CBO’s November 9 budget review reports a larger FY2026 deficit and a separate October year-over-year increase shaped by payment timing. Keeping the periods and accounting basis straight makes the headline easier to interpret.
A Congressional Budget Office baseline is a law-based projection used to compare policy changes. It is not an enacted budget or a promise about what federal finances will look like.
The October CPI rose 0.4% from September, but BLS could not report many year-over-year changes because it had no October 2025 survey data. The gap changes what this month’s figures can answer.
National GDP measures production across the country, while state accounts show that growth can vary by place. Neither figure directly measures a household’s wages, costs, or access to nearby work.
Clear explanations for an economy that rarely feels simple.
Explore the explainers ↗The spending decisions that shape everyday life.
Small firms, investment, and the people building businesses.
How economic change reaches families and communities.
The work behind art, design, culture, and local renewal.